Will the State of the Union Impact Car Prices in 2026?

Trump’s speech promises affordability — but the tariffs driving up car prices are already locked in. Here’s what that means for your wallet at the dealership right now.

1. The Short Answer: What the SOTU Actually Does to Car Prices

Let’s answer the question directly: the State of the Union address does not set car prices. A president’s prime-time speech to Congress can promise affordability, tout policy wins, and outline an economic agenda — but it does not, by itself, change what you’ll pay at the dealership tomorrow morning.

What does change car prices? Tariffs. And those are already in effect.

Here’s the reality as of February 24, 2026 — the day of President Trump’s first full State of the Union address of his second term:

QUICK ANSWER: Will the 2026 State of the Union impact car prices? The State of the Union speech itself will not directly change car prices. However, the Trump administration’s tariff policies — which the SOTU will address — are already raising new car prices. A 25% Section 232 tariff on imported vehicles and many parts remains in force. The average new car price hit a record $50,080 in September 2025. Experts at J.P. Morgan estimate tariffs will add $3,258 per vehicle by year three. The speech may signal future tariff changes, but the price impact is already underway.

That said, the SOTU matters as a signal. What Trump says tonight about tariffs, trade deals, and economic direction will shape investor expectations, automaker planning, and potentially the next wave of policy moves. Watching the speech carefully is worth your time — even if it won’t cut the price on the Chevy Silverado you’re eyeing.

2. The 2026 SOTU Context: Affordability, Tariffs, and a Supreme Court Bombshell

Tonight’s address comes at one of the most economically turbulent moments of Trump’s second term. Five days before the speech, on Friday February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6-3 ruling that struck down Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional.

Those tariffs — which covered most of America’s trading partners — had been the centerpiece of Trump’s trade agenda. The Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, dealing a major blow to his economic strategy.

“The tariff ruling is part of a broader economic messaging challenge facing the White House. A majority of Americans already say they think tariffs are more likely to hurt than help the economy.”

— NPR, February 24, 2026

Trump responded within hours of the ruling — first announcing a 10% baseline tariff under different legal authority (Section 122), then raising it to 15% the next day. That new tariff is only valid for 150 days under Section 122. Meanwhile, a separate suite of tariffs — the Section 232 tariffs — remain fully in force.

So the SOTU tonight is Trump’s first major public opportunity to reframe his tariff narrative after the Court’s rebuke. He’s expected to promise affordability and defend his trade policies. But the economic damage is already showing up in showrooms across the country.

“Six in 10 believe the country is worse off than last year, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, and a majority think the state of the union is not strong.”

— NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, cited February 2026

2026 SOTU Snapshot	Detail
Date	Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Time	9:00 PM ET
Location	U.S. Capitol, House Chamber
Democratic response	Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger
Key economic backdrop	6-3 SCOTUS ruling struck down IEEPA tariffs (Feb 20, 2026)
New tariff rate (post-ruling)	10–15% baseline (Section 122; expires 150 days)
Section 232 auto tariffs	25% on imported vehicles — still fully in effect
Average new car price (Sept 2025)	$50,080 — first time over $50K (Kelley Blue Book)
Trump’s stated focus	Affordability — ‘everything’s down, everything’s down’
Polling on affordability	Majority disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the economy (ABC/WaPo/Ipsos, Feb 2026)

 

3. The Tariff Timeline: How We Got Here

To understand what the SOTU means for car prices, you need to understand the full arc of the tariff story. Here it is, compressed:

Date	Tariff Action	Impact on Auto Industry
Feb 2025	25% tariff on steel and aluminum — all country exemptions removed	Steel = 25%, Aluminum = 25%. Input costs rise for every U.S. automaker.
March 2025	25% Section 232 tariff on imported vehicles	Every imported car or truck enters the U.S. with a 25% added cost
April 2025	25% tariff on auto parts (Section 232)	Even U.S.-assembled cars cost more — most use imported components
June 2025	Steel/aluminum tariffs raised to 50%	Production costs rise further for U.S. manufacturers
Aug 2025	15% tariff on EU vehicles goes into effect	BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, VW all subject to 15% rate
Sept 2025	Average new car transaction price hits record $50,080	Kelley Blue Book confirms first-ever $50K+ monthly average
Nov 2025	25% tariff on medium/heavy-duty trucks and parts	Expands tariff burden across the full vehicle lineup
Feb 20, 2026	SCOTUS strikes down IEEPA tariffs (6-3 ruling)	IEEPA-based tariffs invalidated — but Section 232 tariffs remain
Feb 20–21, 2026	Trump announces 10%, then 15% baseline tariff (Section 122)	New 150-day tariff — does NOT affect auto-specific tariffs
Feb 24, 2026	State of the Union address	Trump expected to address tariffs and affordability in prime time

 

The key insight from this timeline: the tariffs that most affect car prices — the 25% on imported vehicles and parts under Section 232 — were not affected by the Supreme Court ruling. They remain in full force.

4. What the Supreme Court Ruling Means for Auto Prices

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority when he used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping country-specific tariffs. The ruling was significant — but its direct impact on car prices is more limited than headlines suggested.

Did the Supreme Court ruling lower car prices?

No. The Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 ruling struck down IEEPA-based tariffs — but the tariffs most directly affecting car prices, the Section 232 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts, were NOT subject to that ruling. As Kelley Blue Book’s parent company Cox Automotive noted, Section 232 is ‘where the real impact sits, particularly around steel, aluminum, and imported vehicles.’ Those duties remain fully in force.

Here’s why this matters for car buyers specifically:

• The 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles (Section 232) — still in effect
• The 25% tariff on auto parts used in U.S. assembly (Section 232) — still in effect
• The 25–50% tariff on steel and aluminum (Section 232) — still in effect
• The 15% tariff on EU-built vehicles — still in effect
• IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs on most trading partners — STRUCK DOWN

“Cox Automotive notes that the Supreme Court’s decision ‘may over time reduce some tariff-driven inflationary pressure on the overall U.S. economy,’ but ‘impacts only IEEPA-based tariffs, which are NOT the tariff authority directly driving auto costs.'”

— Kelley Blue Book, citing Cox Automotive, February 2026

The practical result: the SCOTUS ruling was a meaningful legal and political defeat for Trump’s trade agenda, but it did not materially change the tariff environment for car buyers. If you’re shopping for a new vehicle today, February 24, 2026, you’re still buying in a market shaped by those Section 232 duties.

5. The Tariffs Still in Effect: Why Section 232 Is the Real Car Price Driver

Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 gives the president authority to impose tariffs when the Commerce Department determines that imports threaten national security. Trump used a 2019 Commerce report to justify applying it to automobiles in 2025.

Unlike IEEPA tariffs — which the Supreme Court just invalidated — Section 232 tariffs have a clearer legal foundation. They’ve been used since 2018 (for steel and aluminum), they survived legal challenges before, and they are not going away anytime soon.

Section 232 tariffs require no declaration of emergency and have been upheld by courts. They are the most legally durable of Trump’s tariff tools — and the ones most directly hitting car prices.

Section 232 Tariff	Rate	Status (Feb 24, 2026)	Auto Industry Impact
Imported passenger cars	25%	Active	Every imported car enters with 25% extra cost
Auto parts	25%	Active	Even U.S.-built cars cost more — imported parts taxed
Steel	25–50%	Active	Vehicle body, frames, chassis all cost more
Aluminum	25–50%	Active	Wheels, engine components, body panels more expensive
EU vehicles	15%	Active (per trade framework)	BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, VW — 15% tariff
Medium/heavy trucks + parts	25%	Active (from Nov 2025)	Commercial vehicles, truck components taxed
IEEPA reciprocal tariffs	Varied	STRUCK DOWN Feb 20, 2026	Invalidated — but not the main auto price driver
New Section 122 baseline tariff	15%	Active (150-day limit)	Does not apply to autos already under 232

 

6. How Much Are Car Prices Already Up? The Data

Let’s get specific. How much are tariffs actually costing car buyers right now?

Average Transaction Prices

The average new car transaction price hit $50,080 in September 2025 — the first time the monthly average has ever exceeded $50,000, according to Kelley Blue Book. By November 2025, Cox Automotive tracked the average at $49,814.

For comparison, the average transaction price in February 2025 — just before the auto tariffs took effect in April — was $47,373. That’s a $2,500+ increase in under a year.

Model-Year 2026 Price Increases

“Cloud Theory, which tracks car inventory on dealer websites across the country, found the average marketed price increase on 2026 models was nearly $2,000, compared to an approximately $400 uptick during last year’s model year changeover.”

— Detroit News / Keene Sentinel, December 2025

That’s striking context: the typical annual model-year price bump has historically been around $400. In 2026, it’s nearly $2,000 on average. The number of models with at least a $2,000 price hike jumped from 9 models in 2025 to 23 models in 2026.

Expert Projections for Total Tariff Costs

Source	Estimate	Timeframe	Notes
J.P. Morgan Global Research	$41 billion total tariff cost	Year 1	Shared equally between automakers and consumers
J.P. Morgan Global Research	$45 billion	Year 2	Equals ~$3,000+ per vehicle
J.P. Morgan Global Research	$52 billion / $3,258 per vehicle	Year 3	Equals 7.3% of average retail price
Kelley Blue Book	Up to $6,000 on cars under $40K	Ongoing	From 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts
Kiplinger Letter	$5,000–$10,000 on foreign brands; $3,000 on domestic	Ongoing	Estimate pre-dating partial SCOTUS relief
Cox Automotive	15.8M vehicle sales forecast 2026	Full year 2026	Down 2.4% from 2025 — affordability crisis cited as top reason

 

One Number Sums It Up

A J.P. Morgan estimate of $3,258 in added tariff costs per vehicle by year three — representing 7.3% of the average retail price — gives the clearest single-number picture of what buyers are ultimately absorbing. That’s not a hypothetical. It’s the trajectory the industry is already on.

7. What Automakers Are Doing: Absorbing, Passing On, or Shrinkflating

For most of 2025, automakers chose to absorb tariff costs rather than pass them directly to buyers. That approach has limits — and 2026 is where the limits are showing.

Why Didn’t Prices Spike Immediately?

Three main reasons: large pre-tariff vehicle inventories gave automakers a time buffer, competitive pressure kept companies from unilateral price hikes, and blowback from Trump made carmakers reluctant to publicly blame tariffs for price increases.

“Among the reasons: competitive pressures between rival automakers, concern over blowback from Trump, large pre-tariff vehicle inventories that gave companies a lag time before pricing adjustments were needed, as well as policy adjustments that reduced the pain of the tariffs themselves.”

— Detroit News, December 2025

Why Prices Are Rising Now

Pre-tariff inventory is gone. The 2026 model year is the first full cycle priced in a tariff environment. And the total tariff bill is accumulating: GM expects $3–4 billion in tariff costs in 2026; Ford projects around $2 billion net impact.

“Automakers really held their prices throughout the ’25 model year, and we’re starting to see a bit [of an impact] in ’26. But it’s being wrapped up in different ways, so it’s very difficult to suss out.”

— Stephanie Brinley, S&P Global Mobility analyst, December 2025

Shrinkflation: The Invisible Price Hike

Not all price increases show up on the window sticker. Some automakers are quietly removing standard features from trim levels — keeping the MSRP the same while delivering less car. This is automotive shrinkflation, and it’s increasingly common.

Examples include removing standard safety tech features, dropping interior material quality, or making previously standard items optional. The price stays the same. You get less.

8. Brand-by-Brand: Who Raised Prices and by How Much

Brand	Price Action	Amount / Details
BMW	Raised prices (Jan 1, 2026)	$400–$1,500 depending on model; X6 M Competition +$1,500
Porsche	Multiple increases (2025–Jan 2026)	1.2%–2.9% Jan 2026; prior increases of 2.3%–3.6% in July 2025. Tariff cost: ~$813M in 2025
Lexus	Raised prices (mid-2026)	Avg +$208 per vehicle (per Reuters)
Toyota	Raised prices (mid-2025)	Avg +$270 per vehicle (per Reuters)
Volvo	Multiple actions	Nearly 6% price hikes on some models; discontinued S90 sedan
Ford	Raised prices on Mexico-built models	Up to $2,000 on Bronco Sport, Maverick, Mustang Mach-E (May 2025)
Ferrari	Raised prices on most imported models	+10% on vehicles imported after April 2, 2025
MINI	Raised prices on 2026 models	+11.4% despite UK-US trade deal capping tariffs at 10% on UK-built cars
General Motors	$3–4B projected tariff costs	Absorbing for now; some costs expected to pass to buyers
Honda	Absorbing costs (2025)	Announced no MSRP increases; relocating CR-V production to U.S.
Hyundai	Held prices through June 2025	Ended complimentary maintenance program on 2026 models
Stellantis (Chrysler/Dodge/Ram)	Employee pricing for all (2025)	Offered discounts instead of raising MSRPs through mid-2025

 

9. The Hidden Price Hikes: Destination Charges, Options & Shrinkflation

Window sticker prices are only part of the story. Automakers have multiple levers for raising the effective cost of a vehicle without touching the MSRP.

Destination Charges

“The sticker price is the last place they want to put the increase. Instead, car companies will find less obvious ways to raise costs, like charging buyers more for options, offering fewer standard options or reducing the incentives to attract buyers. They also can increase fees, such as ‘destination charges.'”

— Ivan Drury, Director of Insights, Edmunds

Destination charges — the mandatory fee for transporting a vehicle from the factory to the dealership — averaged $1,500 for 2025 model year vehicles. These fees have been creeping up. They’re non-negotiable, often overlooked, and a convenient way to quietly recover tariff costs.

Reduced Incentives

Another invisible price hike: automakers are cutting rebates, special financing deals, and promotional discounts that used to reduce the effective purchase price. When a $5,000 rebate disappears, your cost goes up $5,000 — even if the MSRP didn’t move.

What ‘Shrinkflation’ Looks Like in a Car

• A trim level that previously included heated seats now lists them as a $900 option
• Standard Android Auto/Apple CarPlay becomes a $400 connectivity package
• A base model’s standard infotainment screen shrinks from 10 inches to 8 inches
• Lane-keeping assist or adaptive cruise control moves from standard to an optional safety package

10. Used Car Prices: Will They Rise Too?

Will tariffs raise used car prices?

Tariffs do not directly apply to used vehicles already in the U.S. However, used car prices typically rise when new car prices increase. Higher new car prices push buyers toward the used market, increasing demand. Simultaneously, tariffs on imported parts make repairing used vehicles more expensive. Cox Automotive’s 2026 forecast expects used car prices to remain elevated — and potentially climb further if new vehicle affordability deteriorates.

The used car market is a pressure valve. When new cars become more expensive, more buyers turn to used vehicles, driving up prices there too. This is already happening.

There’s also an insurance angle. Tariffs on imported parts — which cover everything from bumpers to electronics to brake calipers — make repairing cars more expensive. Higher repair costs flow directly into higher insurance premiums. Auto insurance has already risen an average of 13% annually for five years in a row, according to Cox Automotive. Tariffs on parts are a direct accelerant to that trend.

11. Car Insurance and Repair Costs: The Tariff Effects You Don’t See Coming

Here’s the tariff impact most people don’t think about until it hits their credit card statement: repair costs. And right behind that, insurance premiums.

Why Tariffs Raise Repair Costs

No vehicle made in the United States is 100% domestically sourced. Even American-assembled trucks and SUVs rely on parts manufactured in Canada, Mexico, Japan, Korea, and Europe. A 25% tariff on those imported parts increases the cost of every repair job — from a fender replacement to an engine rebuild.

Brake pads, sensors, wiring harnesses, electronic control modules, infotainment screens — most of these come from international supply chains. Tariff them, and repair shop invoices go up.

Why Insurance Rates Follow

Insurance premiums are calculated partly based on the cost to repair or replace a vehicle after an accident. As repair costs rise, insurers raise premiums to cover expected claim payouts. Auto insurance was already up an average of 13% annually for five straight years before the 25% auto parts tariff took effect.

Even if you don’t buy a new car, tariffs affect you: higher parts costs raise repair bills, and higher repair bills raise insurance premiums. If you rent cars when traveling, expect higher rental rates as fleets age and replacement vehicles cost more.

12. What Trump Has Said About Car Prices and Affordability

Trump’s public messaging on car prices and inflation has been a study in selective presentation. At a campaign stop in Rome, Georgia before the SOTU, he made sweeping affordability claims:

“Airfares, hotels, car payments, rent, sports events, groceries, everything’s down, everything’s down, dairy, eggs, potatoes and chicken. Core inflation is now the lowest of any time in more than seven years. The last three months, we’ve had the lowest inflation we have had in over a decade.”

— President Trump, campaign stop in Rome, Georgia, pre-SOTU 2026

Analysts and fact-checkers noted inconsistencies with the administration’s own data. The broader picture — average new car prices at a record $50,000+, auto insurance up 13% annually, GM expecting $3–4 billion in tariff costs — paints a different picture than ‘everything’s down.’

“When you look at the president’s first term, the economy was his superpower. His economic approval ran well above his overall approval rating, and that has just completely reversed in the second Trump administration.”

— Lindsay Owens, executive director, Groundwork Collaborative, cited in Washington Times

What Trump says in tonight’s SOTU about car prices will set the narrative frame — but the data at the dealership is what matters to buyers. The speech is marketing; the tariff regime is the policy.

13. Should You Buy a Car Now or Wait? The Expert Verdict

Should I buy a car now or wait in 2026?

Most auto analysts advise buying when you need a vehicle rather than timing the market. Car prices are likely to stay elevated through 2026 — Cox Automotive forecasts 15.8 million vehicles sold (down 2.4% from 2025), driven by affordability constraints. The 25% Section 232 tariff on imported vehicles remains in force. Waiting will not lower the tariff environment, and prices may continue creeping up as automakers recover accumulated tariff costs through 2026 model pricing.

Buy Now If:

• You need a vehicle in the next 3–6 months — prices are unlikely to meaningfully decrease
• You’re buying a domestically assembled vehicle — avoids the 25% import tariff directly
• You’ve found a model with unusually high incentives — take advantage before they shrink further
• You’re buying used — tariffs don’t apply to existing inventory

Consider Waiting If:

• You don’t urgently need a vehicle and can extend your current car’s life
• You’re interested in a specific European or Asian import — watch for trade deal developments that could reduce the 15–25% tariff rate
• The USMCA renegotiation produces tariff relief for Canadian or Mexican-assembled vehicles
• You’re eyeing a 2027 model-year vehicle — manufacturers may adjust pricing strategy based on demand feedback from 2026

The Smartest Move Right Now: Negotiate Hard

The actual selling price of a car is set between buyer and dealer — not by the MSRP. With lower overall demand (Cox projects 15.8 million sales, down from 16.2 million in 2025), dealers have inventory sitting. That creates negotiating room that didn’t exist during the pandemic-era inventory shortage.

“The market just won’t bear it. Automakers appear to be settling into their new normal under Trump.”

— Erin Keating, Cox Automotive executive analyst

14. People Also Ask: Your Questions Answered

Will Trump’s 2026 State of the Union affect car prices?

The State of the Union address itself will not directly change car prices. However, policy announcements in the speech — particularly any tariff modifications, new trade deals, or changes to Section 232 auto tariffs — could affect prices over time. As of February 24, 2026, the 25% Section 232 tariff on imported vehicles remains in force. Any immediate SOTU impact on car prices would require a follow-up executive action or new legislation.

How much have car prices gone up due to tariffs?

By September 2025, the average new vehicle transaction price hit a record $50,080 — up from $47,373 in February 2025, just before auto tariffs took effect. The average price increase on 2026 model-year vehicles was nearly $2,000, compared to about $400 in the prior year. J.P. Morgan estimates tariffs add $3,258 per vehicle by year three, representing 7.3% of the average retail price.

Did the Supreme Court ruling lower car prices?

No. The Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 ruling struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, but these were not the primary tariffs affecting car prices. The Section 232 tariffs — 25% on imported vehicles, 25% on auto parts, and 25–50% on steel and aluminum — remain fully in force. Cox Automotive noted the SCOTUS ruling ‘impacts only IEEPA-based tariffs, which are NOT the tariff authority directly driving auto costs.’

What are Section 232 auto tariffs?

Section 232 auto tariffs are import duties imposed by President Trump in 2025 under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. They include a 25% tariff on all imported passenger vehicles, a 25% tariff on auto parts, and a 25–50% tariff on steel and aluminum used in vehicle manufacturing. Unlike the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026, Section 232 tariffs have clearer legal authority and remain in effect.

Will car prices go down in 2026?

Most analysts expect car prices to remain elevated or continue rising through 2026. Cox Automotive forecasts 15.8 million new vehicle sales in 2026, down 2.4% from 2025, driven by affordability concerns. The 25% Section 232 tariff on imported vehicles remains in force. Experts at S&P Global Mobility and Cox Automotive suggest automakers will continue gradually passing on tariff costs through 2026 model pricing, destination charges, and reduced incentives.

What car brands are raising prices due to tariffs in 2026?

Multiple brands have raised prices citing tariff-related costs. BMW raised prices $400–$1,500 on January 1, 2026. Porsche raised prices 1.2%–2.9% in January 2026 (after prior increases in 2025). MINI raised prices 11.4% on 2026 models. Lexus and Toyota both raised average prices in mid-2026. Ford raised prices up to $2,000 on Mexico-built models in May 2025. Volvo raised prices nearly 6% on some models.

Will tariffs raise car insurance rates?

Yes — indirectly. Tariffs on imported auto parts increase the cost of vehicle repairs. Higher repair costs lead insurers to raise premiums to cover expected claims. Auto insurance premiums had already risen an average of 13% annually for five consecutive years before the 25% auto parts tariff took effect in 2025. The tariff on imported parts is an additional accelerant to that trend.

15. Key Takeaways: What Buyers Need to Know Right Now

The 2026 State of the Union is happening at a pivotal moment in America’s automotive economy. Here’s what you need to take away from everything in this guide:

The 5 Most Important Facts

1. The SOTU speech does not change car prices. Policy does. Watch what follows the speech, not the speech itself.
2. Section 232 tariffs — 25% on imported vehicles, 25% on parts, 25–50% on steel and aluminum — remain fully in force regardless of the SCOTUS ruling.
3. Average new car prices hit a record $50,080 in September 2025. The 2026 model year is seeing nearly $2,000 higher average markups than 2025.
4. Automakers absorbed much of the 2025 tariff costs. In 2026, those costs are increasingly visible in sticker prices, destination charges, and reduced incentives.
5. P. Morgan projects $3,258 in added tariff costs per vehicle by year three — representing 7.3% of the average retail price.

What to Watch For After Tonight’s Speech

• Any announcement of new trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, EU, or Canada — could reduce the 15–25% tariff on imports from those countries
• Executive orders modifying Section 232 auto tariff rates or expanding exemptions
• Congressional action on tariff authority in the wake of the SCOTUS ruling
• USMCA renegotiation timeline — affects tariffs on Canadian and Mexican-assembled vehicles
• Automaker responses in the days following the SOTU — price adjustments, production announcements

Practical Steps for Car Buyers Right Now

6. Research the assembly location of any vehicle you’re considering — domestically assembled vehicles avoid the 25% vehicle import tariff directly.
7. Ask dealers specifically about destination charges on 2026 model-year vehicles — compare to 2025 equivalents.
8. Check for remaining incentive programs before they’re cut — some brands are still offering promotional financing or discounts.
9. If buying European or Asian imports, watch for trade deal announcements that could affect the 15–25% tariff rate.
10. For used vehicles: prices are elevated but tariffs don’t apply directly — still the best near-term value for budget-conscious buyers.

Conclusion: Words vs. Policy

President Trump will deliver a speech tonight promising affordability. It will be compelling, it will be prime-time, and it will be the largest audience he has in a non-election year.

But car prices don’t respond to speeches. They respond to tariffs, trade deals, supply chains, and dealer inventory. And on all of those fronts, the landscape for American car buyers in 2026 is the most expensive in the country’s history.

The State of the Union impact on car prices in 2026 will ultimately be measured not by what Trump says at 9 PM — but by what executive orders, trade negotiations, and Section 232 modifications follow in the weeks and months after. Watch those. That’s where prices actually move.

In the meantime: if you’re buying a car, negotiate hard, check assembly locations, and understand what’s visible and what’s hidden in the price you’re paying. The tariff cost is real. It just doesn’t always show up where you’d expect.

SOURCES & REFERENCES

• NPR — ‘Trump’s State of the Union address: What you need to know’ (February 24, 2026)
• Tax Foundation — ‘2026 State of the Union: Trump Tariffs & Tax Cuts’ (February 24, 2026)
• Washington Times — ‘Trump seeks reset on economy in State of the Union address’ (February 23, 2026)
• Roll Call — ‘Trump speech expected to be heavy on politics, lower on policy’ (February 20, 2026)
• CNBC — ‘With Trump’s reciprocal tariffs struck down, industries still facing higher rates’ (February 20, 2026)
• CarBuzz — ‘Supreme Court Declares Some Tariffs Illegal. Here’s What That Means For Automakers’ (February 2026)
• Kelley Blue Book — ‘The Latest Car Tariff Information’ (updated February 2026, kbb.com/tariffs)
• Cox Automotive / WardsAuto — ‘2026 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.8 million units’ (January 2026)
• P. Morgan Global Research — ‘Auto Tariffs: Who Will Pay?’ (jpmorgan.com)
• Detroit News — ‘Car prices are going up, but how much of it is from tariffs?’ (December 2025)
• CNN Business — ‘Will the long-expected car price hikes arrive with the 2026 models?’ (August 2025)
• TrueCar — ‘How Auto Tariffs Affect Car Prices’ (ongoing tracker, truecar.com)
• Motor1 — ‘BMW and Porsche announce 2026 price hikes’ (December 2025)
• gov / CRS — ‘Section 232 Automotive Tariffs: Issues for Congress’
• S&P Global Mobility — ‘Reciprocal tariffs in focus: New adjustments to US trade’
• ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll — Trump economic approval ratings (February 2026)
• NPR/PBS News/Marist poll — ‘Six in 10 believe country is worse off than last year’ (February 2026)